Let’s compare the Football Pools with Roulette. Many would see Roulette as a random gambling game. Of course it isn’t, at least from the point of view of the casino. The ‘House’ – that is, the casino – has an edge. In Europe, that edge is 2.70%, set by law, but that’s all that’s required in the long run to ensure that the House makes a profit.
The approach to winning at the football pools is to make sure the odds of winning are biased slightly in your favour from evens, so that you have an edge.
Overall football teams play to form. Not all results are in line with form, which is what makes it work for the pools companies. It is possible to identify a strategy which optimises the odds of a win.
To win the ‘treble chance jackpot’ on British football pools – absolute maximum prize – you need 8 draws in a line when there only 8 draws (results) on the coupon, and, of course, you should be the only punter with that line that week. The odds for that are massive – selecting 8 draws from, say, 16 matches has odds of 451 million to 1.
What are the basic elements in a strategy to improve one’s odds of a win?
One element is the way in which the entry is placed. Plans and perms are important. These are the ways of entering multiple lines on the weekly coupon, offering differing levels of ‘guarantee’ and ‘coverage’. This has to be measured against your budget and attitude to risk. This is a whole subject in its own right, with many adherents to both causes, and many arguments too. There are strong cases on each side – and that usually means that the difference is marginal, with plans offering specific and limited guarantees and full perms offering 100% guarantee (provided you have of course selected 8 score draws in your entry) but fewer matches covered for a given budget.
Just as the Casino has a long-run edge in Roulette, it is important to see winning the football pools as a potential long-run winning opportunity. So, you need to persevere. The one week you didn’t do the pools could have been the week you won. A ‘percentage’ approach is essential. Therefore persistance is a second element in the strategy by multibetlink.com.
Finally, pick your battles, as the army says. If we think about our analogy with the casino, then would the casino open the roulette table on a night when it had no statistical edge?
Probably not, though they might see it in a long-run context and about keeping their clients happy – large wins are good for the casino’s image and marketing even though they hit their bottom line. But, they have a long run view too!